The voluntary carbon market had a strange year in 2025: transaction volume rose, but the average price fell. Two numbers moving in opposite directions at the same time signal that the market is splitting in two.
On one side, low-quality, older vintage credits are piling up and finding no buyers. On the other, demand for high-integrity credits produced under newer methodologies is outstripping supply. The average price is the mean of these two worlds — and that is precisely why it misleads.
Three trends stand out from the year-end data: the share of removal credits is rising, buyers are now demanding project-level due diligence, and intermediaries are giving way to direct relationships.
The warning: a "cheap credit" is usually cheap for a reason. In 2026, reputational risk may prove more costly than any price advantage.
The market isn't growing — it's splitting in two. Which half you buy from matters more than the price of the credit.— Carbon Türkiye Market Note, 2025
— Can, May 2026